It Wasn’t a Trap: On Democratic Surrender and What It Cost Us
Chuck Schumer is no Admiral Ackbar, and Why I Was Wrong
(Maybe? Maybe not? See my article The Way of the Mongoose, for a bit more context.)
Two days ago, I wrote about Chuck Schumer’s trap. I explained how his offer to Republicans created a no-win scenario: take the deal and give Democrats a healthcare win, or refuse it and own all the shutdown pain. Either way, Republicans lose.
The shutdown just ended. And I need to be honest with you: there was no trap.
Or rather, there WAS a trap - but then Admiral Ackbar saw it coming and immediately steered half his fleet into the other half at ramming speed.
Let me explain what I got wrong, what actually happened, and what it cost us.
What I Thought Was Happening
When Schumer offered Republicans a deal - reopen the government in exchange for a one-year extension of ACA premium tax credits - I saw it as strategic genius. Republicans would have to choose between two losing positions publicly: give Democrats the healthcare win, or own the escalating shutdown pain.
When Republicans rejected it and called it “political terrorism,” I thought the trap was springing.
When the shutdown kept going and flight cancellations mounted and SNAP benefits ran out and Neighbor Jake couldn’t get his turkey and 42 million Americans were losing food assistance - I thought Democrats were letting Republicans twist in the wind, building public pressure until the GOP had no choice but to cave.
Even when the deal came together Sunday night with eight Democrats voting to advance it, I held onto hope. Maybe this was 4D chess. Maybe Schumer deliberately orchestrated the split to set a December trap while keeping his hands clean. Maybe pulling the ACA extension from the immediate deal was strategic - forcing Republicans to promise a December vote with zero cover of “we already compromised.”
I wanted to believe Democrats were playing the long game.
I was wrong.
What Actually Happened
Eight Democratic senators - Rosen (NV), Cortez Masto (NV), Shaheen (NH), Hassan (NH), Durbin (IL), Kaine (VA), King (ME), and Fetterman (PA) - voted to advance a continuing resolution that reopens the government.
Here’s what Democrats got:
Government funding through January
SNAP benefits funded through September
Retroactive pay for federal workers (which is literally just following existing law)
A promise from Republicans that there will be a vote on ACA extension no later than the second week of December
Here’s what Democrats gave up to get that promise:
Their only leverage: the filibuster (at least for this issue)
The narrative momentum from Tuesday’s massive electoral wins
Party unity
The escalating pressure on Republicans
Forty days of federal worker sacrifice
Let me reiterate: This did not get them the actual policy. Not the ACA extension itself. Simply a promise that Senate Republicans will hold a vote that requires 60 votes to pass and that Speaker Johnson has already made clear the House won’t take up even if it does.
Jay Kuo, writing at The Status Kuo, put it perfectly: “When the only deal on the table is a shit sandwich, the correct response is to get up from the table and walk away.”
Democrats ate the shit sandwich.
The Ramming Speed Problem
Here’s what makes this devastating: Democrats saw the trap. Schumer identified it. He offered Republicans the choice between two bad options. He made them reject it publicly.
And then, instead of forcing Republicans to keep rejecting it - building the narrative, making the choice clearer until every American understood that the GOP would rather let people starve than extend healthcare - Democrats instantly surrendered.
It’s like Admiral Ackbar sees the trap. He warns the fleet. And then he lets half his ships ram directly into the other half while surrendering loudly and repeatedly.
The Surrender Caucus - and I’m using Kuo’s term because it fits - gave up the only weapon they had before Republicans felt enough pain to actually cave on policy. They prioritized protecting vulnerable seats over fighting for healthcare for millions.
Senator Shaheen went on Fox News this morning to explain: “This was the only deal on the table. It was our best chance to reopen the government and immediately begin negotiations to extend the ACA tax credits.”
But that’s exactly the problem. When the only deal on the table gives you nothing but promises, you don’t take it. You make the other side hurt until they offer you something real.
What This Cost Me - A Personal View
I’m one of the federal workers who went without pay for forty days. I was ready to go another forty. Another eighty if necessary.
I wasn’t happy about it. I’ve got a furnace to replace. Lady T and I were burning through our reserves. We were being careful, watching every dollar, planning for months without income if that’s what it took.
But I was willing to keep going.
I was willing to be the anvil if it meant Democrats would actually USE that sacrifice for something. If it meant standing firm on healthcare for tens of millions of Americans. If it meant making Republicans own the pain until they actually caved on policy instead of just promising to maybe vote on something sometime if they feel like it.
I understood what a strike feels like. I knew millions would go without paychecks, that tens of millions would go without food, that Thanksgiving would be disrupted, that air traffic would be chaos. I knew families were losing SNAP benefits. I knew the people I live and work around would feel the strain.
I was ready to endure all of it if Democrats would finally STAND FOR SOMETHING.
Instead, they gave up before Republicans felt enough pain to actually move on policy. They took my sacrifice - took the sacrifice of 900,000 furloughed workers and 2 million working without pay - and traded it for a promise of a vote that will almost certainly fail.
Not for healthcare. Not for policy. For a promise.
I’m getting my paycheck back. I’m grateful for that - Lady T and I need to refill our financial reserve funds, and I’ve got a furnace to buy. But I’m angry. I’m disappointed. And I feel betrayed.
Not by Republicans - I knew what they were. I knew they’d let millions starve rather than extend healthcare.
I feel betrayed by Democrats who took forty days of sacrifice from federal workers and millions of other Americans and traded it for nothing.
The Messaging Disaster
But it’s worse than just surrendering too early. Democrats also completely botched the messaging.
Schumer made his offer to Republicans ONE time. They rejected it ONCE, publicly. That should have happened five times. Ten times. Each rejection should have been more public than the last, building the narrative that Republicans would rather let America burn than extend healthcare.
Instead, there was one offer, one rejection, and then... quiet negotiations behind closed doors that ended with Democrats giving up their leverage.
The Surrender Caucus voted Sunday night. Then they explained themselves Monday morning. That’s backwards. If you know you’re going to end the shutdown, you build the public case FIRST. You spend days, weeks, explaining to voters: “We’ve offered Republicans this deal repeatedly. They keep refusing. We can’t let federal workers and SNAP recipients suffer indefinitely for a fight Republicans won’t engage in good faith.”
You lead with messaging, not explanation after the fact.
Instead, progressives woke up Monday to discover that moderate Democrats had surrendered in the night. No warning. No buildup. No narrative frame. Just... done.
That’s not strategy. That’s political malpractice.
What Was Lost - Strategic Analysis
Let me be specific about what the Surrender Caucus threw away:
Leverage: The filibuster was Democrats’ only weapon. For this issue, that’s now gone. Republicans got the government reopened without giving up anything concrete. The next fight - the December vote - starts with Democrats having no cards to play.
Narrative: One public rejection of Schumer’s offer wasn’t enough. They needed to make Republicans reject reasonable compromises over and over until every American understood that the GOP cares more about hurting Democrats than helping people. That opportunity is now gone.
Unity: Progressives are furious. The House feels betrayed. The base is demoralized. Two days after a massive electoral victory that proved Americans want Democrats to fight, the party fractured.
Momentum: Tuesday’s wins should have energized Democrats to fight harder. Instead, the energy got sucked out of the room by immediate surrender. The message to the base: sure, your votes matter, but we’ll still cave instantly when it gets hard.
Pressure: The pain was mounting. Flight cancellations were increasing. Air traffic controller staffing was becoming a crisis. SNAP benefits had run out. Thanksgiving was coming. Republicans were starting to feel real political damage.
All of that - gone.
Democrats relieved that pressure long before it could have forced Republicans to cave on policy.
What This Reveals
The Surrender Caucus senators are all from purple or swing states: Nevada, New Hampshire, Virginia, Illinois, Pennsylvania. They’re protecting their seats. They’re prioritizing their own political survival over fighting for policy.
That’s the fundamental divide in the Democratic Party right now: corporate Democrats who want to look reasonable and moderate versus fighting Democrats who understand that Republicans don’t negotiate in good faith and the only way to win is to make them hurt until they cave.
The Surrender Caucus chose to look reasonable. They chose immediate political cover - “we reopened the government!” - over long-term strategy.
And here’s what they don’t understand: voters don’t reward weakness. They don’t reward surrender. They don’t reward Democrats who give up leverage for promises.
The voters just showed us on Tuesday what they want. They want Democrats who fight. Who stand for something. Who don’t cave when it gets hard.
The Surrender Caucus ignored that message entirely.
Where Do We Go From Here?
The fight isn’t over. The December vote is coming. When Republicans vote down the ACA extension - and they will - Democrats need to make them own it. They need to make every American understand that Republicans chose to kill healthcare. They need to turn that vote into electoral ammunition for 2026.
But they’re starting that fight with no leverage, fractured unity, and a base that just watched them surrender for an empty promise.
We have to make sure voters understand that Republicans did this. That Democrats fought for healthcare and Republicans killed it. That the solution is to evict the GOP from Congress next November.
But here’s what I know: if Democrats want voters to show up and fight, Democrats have to show up and fight first.
The Surrender Caucus failed that test.
The Bottom Line
I was wrong about the trap. There was no 4D chess. There was no strategic depth. There was just weakness dressed up as pragmatism, sacrifice traded for empty promises, and leverage given away for nothing.
Admiral Ackbar saw the trap and immediately wrecked his own fleet.
I wanted to believe Democrats were playing the long game. I wanted to believe Schumer was smarter than this. I wanted to believe that forty days of sacrifice would amount to something.
I was wrong to hope for competence where there was only surrender.
A Few Last Words:
The mongoose watches. The patterns continue. And the next fight is already starting - this time with Democrats having given away the only serious weapon they had.
We’ll see what December brings. But I’m not optimistic.
Not after watching the Corporate Democrats steer into their own fleet at ramming speed.